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El Niño events, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, amplify climate variability throughout the world. Uncertain climate model predictions limit our ability to assess whether these climatic events could become more extreme under anthropogenic greenhouse warming. Palaeoclimate records provide estimates of past changes, but it is unclear if they can constrain mechanisms underlying future predictions. Here we uncover a mechanism using numerical simulations that drives consistent changes in response to past and future forcings, allowing model validation against palaeoclimate data. The simulated mechanism is consistent with the dynamics of observed extreme El Niño events, which develop when western Pacific warm pool waters expand rapidly eastwards because of strongly coupled ocean currents and winds. These coupled interactions weaken under glacial conditions because of a deeper mixed layer driven by a stronger Walker circulation. The resulting decrease in ENSO variability and extreme El Niño occurrence is supported by a series of tropical Pacific palaeoceanographic records showing reduced glacial temperature variability within key ENSO-sensitive oceanic regions, including new data from the central equatorial Pacific. The model–data agreement on past variability, together with the consistent mechanism across climatic states, supports the prediction of a shallower mixed layer and weaker Walker circulation driving more frequent extreme El Niño genesis under greenhouse warming. 

Tropical and subtropical hydrological systems are important to water resource management. To improve understanding of these dynamical systems, it is useful to probe their relationship with relevant forcings. Historically, insolation is believed to be a major driver of these dynamics, testable using speleothem stable oxygen isotope records, whose growth regions and precise chronologies enable detailed investigations of tropical/subtropical hydrology. Here we present a systematic analysis of long speleothem records examining the global relationship between and insolation across different timescales and regions. Our analysis reveals that the relationship between speleothem and insolation varies significantly by region, with no latitude, season, or periodicity of insolation bearing global relevance. We demonstrate that, when comparing speleothem to insolation curves, seasonal influence often cannot be distinguished from physical lags without additional constraints from modeling or theory. Most notably, we identify a previously unrecognized asymmetry whereby coherence in the precessional (19–23 kyr) band frequently collapses during glacial periods while maintaining power in the 100 kyr band. This suggests a fundamental reorganization of the hydrological cycle and its response to orbital forcing during glacial periods. Our results indicate that comparing speleothem to single insolation curves oversimplifies the complex relationship between orbital forcing and hydroclimate variability, highlighting our framework's utility for comprehensively exploring these interactions. These findings advance understanding of how mid‐to‐low latitude hydrology responds to external forcing–knowledge that may prove valuable as we face unprecedented CO2‐driven climate change. 

Climate models and coral data provide insight into the response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to external forcing. 

Abstract Tropical cyclones produce rainfall with extremely negative isotope values (δ¹⁸O and δ²H), but the controls on isotopic fractionation during tropical cyclones are poorly understood. Here we studied the isotopic composition of rainfall at sites across central Texas during Hurricane Harvey (2017) to better understand these processes. Rainfall δ¹⁸O trend towards more negative values as a result of Rayleigh distillation of precipitation-generating airmasses as they travel towards the center of the storm. Superimposed on these gradual changes are abrupt isotopic shifts with exceptionally low deuterium excess values. These appear to be controlled by microphysical processes associated with the passage of spiral rainbands over the sampling locations. Isotope-enabled climate modeling suggests that it may be possible to identify the signature of tropical cyclones from annually resolved isotopic proxy records, but will depend on the size of the storm and the proximity of the site to the core of the storm system. 

Abstract Earth's orbital geometry exerts a profound influence on climate by regulating changes in incoming solar radiation. Superimposed on orbitally paced climate change, Pleistocene records reveal substantial millennial‐scale variability characterized by abrupt changes and rapid swings. However, the extent to which orbital forcing modulates the amplitude and timing of these millennial variations is unclear. Here we isolate the magnitude of millennial‐scale variability (MMV) in two well‐dated records, both linked to precession cycles (19,000‐ and 23,000‐year periodicity): composite Chinese speleothemδ¹⁸O, commonly interpreted as a proxy for Asian monsoon intensity, and atmospheric methane. At the millennial timescale (1,000–10,000 years), we find a fundamental decoupling wherein precession directly modulates the MMV of methane but not that of speleothemδ¹⁸O, which is shown to be strikingly similar to the MMV of Antarctic ice coreδ²H. One explanation is that the MMV of methane responds to changes in midlatitude to high‐latitude insolation, whereas speleothemδ¹⁸O is modulated by internal climate feedbacks. 

Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based 2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Niñ o -like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports an overall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the early MWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20 th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remains indistinguishable from natural variability. 

Abstract. Reconstructions of global hydroclimate during the Common Era (CE; the past ∼2000 years) are important for providing context for current and future global environmental change. Stable isotope ratios in water are quantitative indicators of hydroclimate on regional to global scales, and these signals are encoded in a wide range of natural geologic archives. Here we present the Iso2k database, a global compilation of previously published datasets from a variety of natural archives that record the stable oxygen (δ18O) or hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic compositions of environmental waters, which reflect hydroclimate changes over the CE. The Iso2k database contains 759 isotope records from the terrestrial and marine realms, including glacier and ground ice (210); speleothems (68); corals, sclerosponges, and mollusks (143); wood (81); lake sediments and other terrestrial sediments (e.g., loess) (158); and marine sediments (99). Individual datasets have temporal resolutions ranging from sub-annual to centennial and include chronological data where available. A fundamental feature of the database is its comprehensive metadata, which will assist both experts and nonexperts in the interpretation of each record and in data synthesis. Key metadata fields have standardized vocabularies to facilitate comparisons across diversearchives and with climate-model-simulated fields. This is the firstglobal-scale collection of water isotope proxy records from multiple typesof geological and biological archives. It is suitable for evaluatinghydroclimate processes through time and space using large-scale synthesis,model–data intercomparison and (paleo)data assimilation. The Iso2k databaseis available for download at https://doi.org/10.25921/57j8-vs18 (Konecky and McKay, 2020) and is also accessible via the NOAA/WDS Paleo Datalanding page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/29593 (last access: 30 July 2020).